L’impact de l’inflation sur l’épargne en République Démocratique du Congo est analysé à travers une étude macroéconomique des déterminants de l’épargne de 1960 à 2020, révélant des taux d’épargne faibles et leurs conséquences sur l’investissement et la croissance économique.
Équation estimée
LEPA = 0.190828120701*LEPA(-1) + 0.0482965886725*IDE – 0.052706292233*IDE(-1) – 0.0223250146078*IDE(-2) + 0.0663058592692*IDE(-3) + 0.030675140666*IDE(-4) + 0.00369917584358*INT – 0.00512296861414*INT(-1) – 0.00783861260891*INT(-2) – 1.542214889e-06*INFL + 3.85466193472e-05*INFL(-1) + 8.24914249404e-05*INFL(-2) + 4.0614553196e-05*INFL(-3) + 5.79565908347e-05*INFL(-4) + 0.0978088975718*LPIBH – 0.0343249173785*LPIBH(-1) + 0.287741511258*LPIBH(-2) – 1.05461893977*LPIBH(-3) + 0.880453409463*LPIBH(-4) + 0.851823411933*LAID – 0.843589098358*LAID(-1) + 0.722532222739
Cointegrating Equation:
D(LEPA) = -0.809171879299*(LEPA(-1) – (0.08681256*IDE(-1) -0.01144677*INT(-1) + 0.00026949*INFL(-1) + 0.21881626*LPIBH(-1) + 0.01017622*LAID(-1) + 0.89292799))
| Ramsey RESET Test | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equation: UNTITLED | ||||
| Omitted Variables: Squares of fitted values | ||||
| Specification: LEPA LEPA(-1) IDE IDE(-1) IDE(-2) IDE(-3) IDE(-4) INT INT(-1) INT(-2) INFL INFL(-1) INFL(-2) INFL(-3) INFL(-4) LPIBH LPIBH(-1) LPIBH(-2) LPIBH(-3) LPIBH(-4) LAID LAID(-1) C | ||||
| Value | df | Probability | ||
| t-statistic | 1.008901 | 34 | 0.3201 | |
| F-statistic | 1.017881 | (1, 34) | 0.3201 | |
| Likelihood ratio | 1.681403 | 1 | 0.1947 | |
| Heteroskedasticity Test: Breusch-Pagan-Godfrey | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Null hypothesis: Homoskedasticity | ||||
| F-statistic | 1.351749 | Prob. F(21,35) | 0.2101 | |
| Obs*R-squared | 25.52653 | Prob. Chi-Square(21) | 0.2251 | |
| Scaled explained SS | 18.32878 | Prob. Chi-Square(21) | 0.6281 | |
| Breusch-Godfrey Serial Correlation LM Test: | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Null hypothesis: No serial correlation at up to 1 lag | ||||
| F-statistic | 2.021279 | Prob. F(1,34) | 0.1642 | |
| Obs*R-squared | 3.198467 | Prob. Chi-Square(1) | 0.0737 | |
| EPA | IDE | AID | INT | INFL | PIBH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPA | 1,000 | 0,195 | 0,248 | 0,068 | -0,069 | 0,371 |
| IDE | 0,195 | 1,000 | 0,645 | -0,167 | -0,107 | 0,203 |
| AID | 0,248 | 0,645 | 1,000 | -0,170 | -0,110 | 0,285 |
| INT | 0,068 | -0,167 | -0,170 | 1,000 | 0,388 | -0,392 |
| INFL | -0,069 | -0,107 | -0,110 | 0,388 | 1,000 | -0,197 |
| PIBH | 0,371 | 0,203 | 0,285 | -0,392 | -0,197 | 1,000 |
[img_1]
Source : Banque centrale du Congo (2020) et Banque Mondiale (2021)
Les données brutes
| Années | Épargne | Taux d’intérêt | Inflation | PIB/Hab | IDE en % du PIB | AIDE PUB en USD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1960 | 4,97 | 4 | 21,8 | 220,3 | 0,41296918 | 82089996,3 |
| 1961 | 5,73 | 4 | 21,78 | 197,4 | 0,96163433 | 91160003,7 |
| 1962 | 1,92 | 4 | 17,88 | 235,6 | 0,06855773 | 120970001 |
| 1963 | 18,65 | 4 | 105,19 | 377,4 | 0,7189075 | 111500000 |
| 1964 | 15,21 | 4 | 35,4 | 170,5 | 0,044463 | 127019997 |
| 1965 | 15,55 | 4 | -2,7 | 232,8 | 0,06772437 | 142070007 |
| 1966 | 1,43 | 4 | 15,8 | 253,8 | 0,1598563 | 93110000,6 |
| 1967 | 11,2 | 4 | 36,97 | 184,1 | 0,1286082 | 93800003,1 |
| 1968 | 10,46 | 4 | 53,85 | 206,7 | 0,08908561 | 76660003,7 |
| 1969 | 11,78 | 4 | 6,14 | 258,6 | 2,47114001 | 83750000 |
| 1970 | 12,16 | 4 | 7,44 | 243,7 | 0,13182483 | 89360000,6 |
| 1971 | 12 | 4 | 6,15 | 272,1 | 0,10259581 | 107269997 |
| 1972 | 14,12 | 4 | 15,94 | 292,3 | 0,16959001 | 121690002 |
| 1973 | 14,29 | 4 | 15,63 | 362,8 | 0,22515198 | 138919998 |
| 1974 | 14,24 | 4 | 29,19 | 430,7 | 0,54162984 | 180089996 |
| 1975 | 12,69 | 4 | 28,45 | 447 | 0,08908561 | 258079987 |
| 1976 | 6,97 | 12 | 80,46 | 409,5 | 2,47114001 | 193119995 |
| 1977 | 12,05 | 12 | 69,13 | 509,1 | 0,14735397 | 259600006 |
| 1978 | 15,08 | 12 | 48,35 | 616 | 0,63541593 | 315640015 |
| 1979 | 15,35 | 12 | 101,44 | 587,2 | 0,9546454 | 415359985 |
| 1980 | 10,08 | 12 | 46,79 | 546,1 | 0,76151825 | 431230011 |
| 1981 | 7,5 | 12 | 35,28 | 463,7 | 0,55535966 | 392149994 |
| 1982 | 6,52 | 15 | 36,69 | 492,5 | -0,01736052 | 346470001 |
| 1983 | 8,27 | 20 | 76,32 | 387,5 | -1,75156748 | 310299988 |
| 1984 | 10,39 | 20 | 52,24 | 269,8 | -0,41296918 | 300320007 |
| 1985 | 14,38 | 26 | 24,02 | 240,8 | 0,96163433 | 305359985 |
| 1986 | 13,88 | 26 | 44,27 | 263,8 | 0,06855773 | 421559998 |
| 1987 | 11,28 | 29 | 78,9 | 243 | -0,7189075 | 673729980 |
| 1988 | 12,11 | 37 | 71,52 | 273,1 | -0,044463 | 551729980 |
| 1989 | 14,95 | 50 | 103,57 | 269,6 | -0,06772437 | 730109985 |
| 1990 | 9,5 | 45 | 81,14 | 270,1 | -0,1546563 | 895789978 |
| 1991 | 1,83 | 55 | 2154,24 | 268,3 | 0,1286082 | 475279999 |
| 1992 | 6,05 | 55 | 4132,01 | 220,4 | -0,00887301 | 268519989 |
| 1993 | 3,98 | 95 | 1986,29 | 275,8 | 0,06416815 | 177820007 |
| 1994 | 10,6 | 145 | 23774,46 | 145,1 | -0,0257715 | 244809998 |
| 1995 | 14,1 | 125 | 541,91 | 135,8 | -0,39603509 | 194750000 |
| 1996 | 27,5 | 238 | 492,44 | 135 | 0,42952774 | 166160004 |
| 1997 | 6,3 | 13 | 198,52 | 139 | -0,72814252 | 157880005 |
| 1998 | 5 | 22 | 29,15 | 138,6 | 0,98636074 | 127019997 |
| 1999 | 9,162 | 120 | 284,89 | 102,6 | 0,23687933 | 135509995 |
| 2000 | 10,318 | 120 | 513,91 | 405,2 | 0,49345228 | 178440002 |
| 2001 | 5,638 | 140 | 359,94 | 153,6 | 1,37428477 | 246639999 |
| 2002 | 9,462 | 24 | 31,52 | 175 | 2,14937976 | 1176170044 |
| 2003 | 3,494 | 8 | 12,87 | 173,8 | 4,37764238 | 5417029785 |
| 2004 | 8,38 | 14 | 3,99 | 194 | 3,97216286 | 1919150024 |
| 2005 | 5,354 | 28,75 | 21,32 | 218,4 | 1,50445259 | 1881800049 |
| 2006 | 10,083 | 40 | 13,05 | 255,4 | 1,77208503 | 2197239990 |
| 2007 | 11,71 | 22,5 | 16,95 | 286,3 | 10,8023675 | 1348270020 |
| 2008 | 5,14 | 40 | 17,3 | 327,6 | 8,72627342 | 1766900024 |
| 2009 | 5,244 | 70 | 2,8 | 298,6 | -1,3041352 | 2362350098 |
| 2010 | 20,256 | 22 | 7,1 | 334 | 12,7160141 | 3483649902 |
| 2011 | 18,725 | 20 | 15,32 | 387,1 | 6,17662459 | 5526459961 |
| 2012 | 7,583 | 4 | 9,72 | 424,6 | 9,8668687 | 2843270020 |
| 2013 | 17,268 | 3 | 1,63 | 458 | 5,19461157 | 2584010010 |
| 2014 | 18,198 | 2 | 1,24 | 486,8 | 4,17602961 | 2400020020 |
| 2015 | 15,684 | 2 | 0,74 | 497,3 | 3,07434222 | 2599040039 |
| 2016 | 14,069 | 7 | 26 | 471,3 | 2,51078414 | 2102330078 |
| 2017 | 21,285 | 14 | 41,5 | 467,1 | 2,75644325 | 2292639893 |
| 2018 | 17,195 | 9 | 7,2 | 560,8 | 2,95904258 | 2513929932 |
| 2019 | 17,454 | 18,5 | 4,5 | 560,7 | 2,60931444 | 2809739990 |
| 2020 | 23,32 | 15,8 | 15,8 | 544 | 3,07507854 | 3377360107 |
Source : Banque centrale du Congo (2020) et Banque Mondiale (2021)